Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". 12. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? Want to dive deeper? Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. Website Updates Paused Click here, for more. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". These are the bellwether counties. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Subscribe to breaking updates View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. 6. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Until this year. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! our Gitlab account where you can . Outstanding. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. University of New Hampshire . With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. In their . Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. What are your thoughts on this article? But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives.