As for R-JAWS, hes entered the top 20, but as he approaches both his 34th birthday and free agency, the question of how many more years hell be trusted to handle the ninth inning looms. Only Price (2018) and Bumgarner (2019) have pitched enough to qualify for an ERA title once since the 2017 season. Wainwright had won nine of 10 decisions coming in. The 40-year-old right-hander became the ninth active pitcher with 2,000. He was the first pitcher aged 39 or older since Mike Mussina in 2008 to throw at least 200 innings with an ERA+ of 125 or better. Is Adam Wainwright in the Hall of Fame? 156-111, 3.18 ERA, 2,286 strikeouts, 126 adjusted ERA. Of course, theres no prorating stats when it comes to evaluating Hall of Fame candidates, and so Wainwright appeared to be in the company of the likes of Roy Oswalt Wainwrights most similar pitcher per Baseball-Reference.com Cliff Lee and former teammate Chris Carpenter as pitchers who had terrific peaks but lacked the length for serious Cooperstown consideration. He has led the league in strikeouts three times, including a 300-strikeout season in 2018. By either that mark or traditional reliever JAWS, the 33-year-old Kimbrel is the biggest gainer this year. The Cardinals trailed 5-0 on a pair of home runs by Tyrone Taylor, but St. Louis rallied to win its 12th straight, 8-5. Zack Greinke has had an interesting career. Jos Ramirez, third base (32.8 career | 31.5 Peak | 32.1 JAWS, +4.0 JAWS). Though hes overcome health scares and worked hard to expand his arsenal to become less reliant upon his cutter, Jansen has continued to take Dodgers fans on a rollercoaster this season. Not an injury issue? All stats used here were sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball Net and Spotrac. In his final inning, Wainwright didnt touch higher than 85 mph. At least hes in better shape than 31-year-old Freddie Freeman (41.8/32.1/37.0, +1.5 JAWS), who only recently surpassed last years 3.3 WAR. DRS changes, injuries, and the shortened season have dealt the slugging third basemans case a set of blows in recent years, making it even harder to overcome his late start. The greatest lineups ever? document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. However, their overall record forced the Cards to play a Wild Card series against Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies. But compared to Molina or especially Pujols, Adam Wainwright is an underdog. He has similar numbers (albeit slightly worse) than Roy Halladay. 3rd stage: Well, his arm hasnt rebounded the way we were hoping for, so were just going to shut him down and see how he responds. 132-72, 3.34 ERA, 2,005 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA. Were not concerned. But at least it wont be historically egregious. All betting content is intended for an audience ages 21+. Its my belief that this as-yet-unnamed metric which Im hoping to formalize in time for the upcoming election cycle does a better job of emphasizing closers rather than starters-turned-relievers who racked up significant WAR in the rotations before making the move to roles more fireman-like than closer-like; it bumps the likes of Tom Gordon, Ellis Kinder, Bobby Shantz, and Kerry Wood down several pegs. Mike Trout, center field (76.2 career | 65.1 Peak | 70.6 JAWS, +0.5 JAWS). Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. I wouldnt expect Wainwright to be at his best at this stage. This is the first time since 2010 that all three are in . St. Louis Cardinals news fromFanSided Daily, Former San Francisco Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval heading to LBPRC, Aroldis Chapmans time with New York Yankees comes to inglorious end, Wild Card wrap-up: Mets, Cardinals regular-season paper tigers, Opening Odds for MLB Division Series (Every Team's Odds to Win the ALDS, NLCS), St. Louis Cardinals: Oli Marmol's perfect quote about Wild Card Game 2, Phillies-Cardinals: Bryce Harper wants just 1 thing from Yadier Molina, Decision points: The key moments from Friday's MLB Wild Card games. Still, his 2.60 ERA is his lowest since 2017, and his strikeout rate is a solid 29.8%. Arizona Diamondbacks. Adam Wainwright on Baseball Reference.. I like that its a round number, but I assure you that this is merely a coincidence. Assuming he pitches in 2022, a year in which I am assuming Major League Baseball will indeed be played, which he has already announced will be his last, Wainwrights first round of Hall of Fame votes would not even be revealed until 2028. However, the future Cardinals Hall of Famer is coming off a 2022 season in which he lost velocity, suffered a decline in swing . I highly doubt it. No ones winning 300 games again, probably, Maybe there will be a couple guys that have a chance Claytons got a chance, Max maybe. Halladay and Martinez combined to win five Cy Youngs had more dominant peaks than Wainwright, but their status as first-ballot Hall of Famers serve as evidence the electorate is already modifying its standards for Hall-worthy starting pitchers. I suppose well get an update after Wainwright returns to camp after competing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). Moving to Adam Wainwright, the 40-year-old moved into second in pitching WAR (again, as calculated by Baseball Reference) last season, and that is where he will stay. His contract with Washington will keep him in a uniform through 2021, and by then, he should have a strong case. At age 33, hes signed for another four years after this campaign, so he should have sufficient time to make a run at 3,000 strikeouts and another Cy Young award. Max Scherzer, already on the Cooperstown fast track before he was traded by the Nationals to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, continued his march towards inner-circle status by authoring a dominant post-acquisition stretch for his new team (7-0 with a 1.98 in 11 starts for the Dodgers, who won each of his outings) on par with Doyle Alexander in 1987, Randy Johnson in 1998 and CC Sabathia in 2008. This will undoubtedly hurt Wainwright's bid for the Hall of Fame. But Wainwright still had good value because he supplied 192 innings. Godspeed, Waino. Twenty-eight are enshrined in Cooperstown everyone except Wainwright and his fellow active hurlers Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw, the latter trio of whom are expected to glide in Cooperstown, as well as Roger Clemens, Tommy John, Luis Tiant, Jerry Koosman, Rick Reuschel, Kevin Brown and Vida Blue. The good news is that Sale is missing bats and taking names, offering hope that the 32-year-old lefty can resume a quest for Cooperstown that was beginning to come into focus before he was injured. For starters, no pitcher can stay that good for that long. Adam Wainwright has the second-most WAR of any Cardinals pitcher all-time (44.5). Hes actually been tougher to hit than in any season since 2016, but his 14% walk rate has created more traffic than ever, and hes blown five of 35 save chances, though three of those were in consecutive outings in mid-July, accounting for seven of the 16 earned runs hes allowed. No Cy's (albeit 4 top 3 finishes). 2/4/18 Super Bowl champs. Even if he retired now, Verlander has likely done enough to ensure a plaque in Cooperstown. Yadier Molina, catcher (58.1 career fWAR (incl. A frequently cited statistic for determining Hall worthiness is the average production of a Hall of Famer at that position, though my preferred approach is to consider a players worthiness not according to the average at a position among a subset of players who are sometimes transcendent and sometimes unworthy, but rather to ask, Is this guy the (fill in ordinal number of Hall of Famers at position) best (fill in position) ever? By Hybrid JAWS, Yadier Molina is the 13th greatest catcher of all-time (two of the ones ahead of him, Buster Posey and Joe Mauer, are not yet Hall-eligible), and there are sixteen catchers in the Hall of Fame. But until we see Jack pitching in games against opposing hitters in game conditions down there in Florida and recovering on time to do it again, and again, and again Ill have to take the wait-and-see approach. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Prices highlights include a 2012 Cy Young award, two ERA titles, and five 200-strikeout seasons. A two-homer, two-walk game on Wednesday added half a win to whats now his seventh-best season (4.5 WAR); with a big finish, he can approach the peak standard (42.7 WAR). One Wainwright is a lot closer to establishing than perhaps even he realizes. Ive covered the Mets for a variety of outlets since 1997. Adam Wainwright in 2021 His lifetime ERA is 3.35 and has dropped nearly a tenth of a point over the last two seasons. Drew. Theyll defer. Your existing password has not been changed. Be the first one to comment on this story. He probably wont gain much more ground this year even assuming he does return, and as with the pitchers on either side of him in this list, free agency looms, though it seems unthinkable the Dodgers will let him depart. Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer just had seasons that good in 2018. While Drew was a fine player throughout his career, he would only spend the 2004 season with the Braves. Those skills may eventually result in a spot in the Hall of Fame. The contact rate against him on pitches in the strike zone last season 91 percent was the highest against him during his 17-season MLB career. Build your customFanSided Daily email newsletter with news and analysis onSt. Louis Cardinals and all your favorite sports teams, TV shows, and more. He, of course, can retract this, but as he is now in his 40s, Im inclined to believe hes serious. Guerrero had an RBI single during the first inning in his lone at-bat. Once Molina has been. Updated: Friday, March 3, 2023 11:11 PM ET, Park Factors . Rile people up.. It happens a lot. Now his current difficulties are being downplayed because the leg/glute tightness, the back spasms, the finger. As his 136 OPS+ and 26 homers attest, he can still rake even at age 40, but with 443 career dingers, hes two seasons away from reaching 500 (42% odds, via ZiPS). The 35-year-old has a career record of 169-89 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 2,682 strikeouts. But is 40-year-old Adam Wainwright starting for the visiting Cardinals against the Dodgers in the winner-take-all tilt also on his way to joining Scherzer in the Hall of Fame? Or could it be that a lot of this is happening because Wainwright is 41 years old and headed to his 42nd birthday on Aug. 30? As noted above, for the past few election cycles, Ive turned away from reliever JAWS in favor of a hybrid metric using WAR, WPA, and WPA/LI. When it comes down to it, Sabathia may find himself in a logjam of other similar pitchers, and if he does get in, it may take him some time. Wainwright, however, has a much more finite timetablehe has announced that he is retiring. Your login session has expired. He is known for being a Baseball Player. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright joins Scott Braun, Erik Kratz, Todd Frazier, and AJ Pierzynski to talk about his final season and the legacy he's left behind. By checking this box, I agree to the terms of service and privacy policy of Rogers Media. David Price is older than he seems; hes already 32 in a few months with just 122 career wins. The good news is that even with a modest 2.6 WAR this year, hes in his seventh-best season and can make tracks towards the third base peak standard (43.1 WAR). This adds up to a solid career, and one that would be worthy of the Hall of Very Good, but not the Hall of Fame. Nelson Cruz, right field (42.2 career | 30.1 Peak | 36.1 JAWS, +1.3 JAWS). He struck out 14 in his MLB debut and it seemed evident that he and Bryce Harper were going to lead the team to not only a World Series championship, but multiple titles. Wainwright has certainly had a long and successful career, but has it been enough to warrant enshirement in the Hall of Fame? With 273 homers, Goldschmidt could reach 300 by the end of next season, though with 1,539 hits, the 2,000 milestone and real clarity on his fate is probably three seasons away. Hes certainly on pace for the Hall, but a lot of it will depend on how he can rebound following his off-the-field motorcycle accident. Its early in spring training. . The only active pitchers behind Wainwright (2,375 2/3) in the 2,000-inning club are 36-year-old David Price (2,103 1/3), 35-year-old Johnny Cueto (2,034 1/3) and 32-year-old Madison Bumgarner (2,034). . His 2011 season, in which he went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and led the league in a slew of categories wins, ERA, games started, innings pitched, strikeouts, WHIP, adjusted ERA, and hits allowed per nine innings earned him a distinction that hadnt been accomplished since Roger Clemens in 1986. Likewise, his 42.4 bWAR is lower than the likes of Javier Vazquez, Al Leiter, and Frank Viola. Wainwright was between 38 and 40 years old in this stretch. But theres a rhythm to the ritual. Perhaps a new metric will be devised that paints Wainwright in an extraordinary new lightI cant really imagine what said metric would be, but Yadier Molinas career FanGraphs WAR shot up 18.4 wins in one day on which meaningful baseball games werent even played, so I am not going to dismiss the possibility hastily. Queried about his Cooperstown credentials during the Cardinals visit to Citi Field last month, Wainwright grinned while seemingly acknowledging his counting numbers he has 184 wins and 2,004 strikeouts are not going to measure up to most of the starting pitchers enshrined in Cooperstown. Its just hard to pitch that long nowadays, without injuries especially. MILWAUKEE Adam Wainwright joins Hall of Famer Bob Gibson as the only St. Louis Cardinals' pitchers with 2,000 strikeouts, fanning Milwaukee's Luis Urias in the fourth inning. If he misses the first week or so, no big deal. It's not the be-all end-all but his baseball reference kind of shows that he really shouldn't make it. With eight All-Star selections, three Cy Young awards, and a World Series ring, Kershaw is probably a lock for election already, but reaching and surpassing some major career milestones would further elevate him in the pantheon. None. Heres what Bowden wrote: Mozeliak was cautious in his comments and reminded me that the right-hander threw only 36 innings last year. Still, hes won 230 games, led the league in wins twice, and won a Cy Young award and a World Series ring. Thats an average of 174 innings per year. Wainwrights candidacy as an elite pitcher of his time should strengthen during the five years between his retirement and his first appearance on a Hall of Fame ballot. Your favorite teams, topics, and players all on your favorite mobile devices. 1:09 | September 14, 2022 St. Louis Cardinals analyst Brad Thompson joins Blair and Barker to talk about whether Adam Wainwright deserves a nod into the Baseball Hall of Fame, stating you. That includes 2020, a season shortened by the pandemic. Even so, five catchers including the younger and still-productive Buster Posey outrank him in the framing-inclusive version of my metric, and with an 80 wRC+ and 0.7 fWAR this year, plus plans to retire after 2022, he might not even catch Russell Martin (49.1) or Joe Mauer (49.3) in the rankings. While these numbers are impressive, they may not be enough to convince voters that Adam Wainwright is a Hall of Famer. Hes got three seasons of 3.0 WAR or less as part of his peak score and has a good shot at continuing his big strides in the next few years. While he has never won a Cy Young Award, he was in the top 3 on four occasions. He went 119-66 with a 2.96 ERA from 2007-15, a span in which only Kershaw had a lower ERA among pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched. Drew move to Atlanta. Adam Wainwright. Wainwright threw his sinker, cutter and curveball the most, and the velocity on all three pitches measured a significant drop-off from last season. He was hit hard four balls hit off him registered exit velocities higher than 104 mph, including a 112.1 mph solo moonshot of a homer off the bat of Jos Abreu. His monitor score is only an 87. Astros @ Cardinals. Were just giving him a little extra time in between appearances to rebound from his first time out. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright's Hall of Fame chances could be dampened by circumstances out of his control. Wainwright did not factor into the decision, allowing five runs on four hits in four innings. 2nd stage: Everything is still on track. Although Gooden was one-and-done when he reached the ballot in 2006, his extraordinary peak meant he probably deserved more of a look. Annual promotional dates for the Purina Pooches in the Ballpark game and Edward Jones Cardinals Hall of Fame Weekend are scheduled for April 30 and August 26-28, respectively. Strasburg hasnt been a disappointment, but he also hasnt lit the world on fire. All Wins Above Replacement and Wins Above Average data comes . Adam Wainwright, however, is a little bit trickier. Adam Wainwright is one of the more curious pitchers in baseball, and a recent thread raised a couple questions to me. Among those who are retired and eligible for Cooperstown, the 65th greatest starter of all-time is actually a pretty sufficiently big nameDwight Gooden. While it seems impossible to envision it now, Wainwright was not always a member of the St. Louis Cardinals. Covering the latest and most controversial news around the world of sports, heavily centered on the Philadelphia Eagles and National Football League. Ad Choices For more information, please read our Legal Disclaimer. The Cardinals looked like one of the best teams in the National League throughout the 2022 regular season, finishing with a record of 93-69, winning the NL Central Division in the process. Todays pitcher will make it more for efficiency. Adam Wainwright will make history as he will become the seventh pitcher in St. Louis Cardinals history to start a game after his 41st birthday. Sabathia has largely been a disappointment since signing a nine-figure extension with the team, and he likely wont be retained when his contract expires after this season. Queried about his Cooperstown credentials during the Cardinals' visit to Citi Field last month, Wainwright grinned while seemingly acknowledging his counting numbers he has 184 wins and 2,004. He threw two no-hitters in the same season and tied the major league record with 20 strikeouts in a nine-inning game. {* backButton *} His 133 OPS+ is a step down from his 201218 prime (146), but his .493 SLG is his best since leaving Arizona. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright joins Scott Braun, Erik Kratz, Todd Frazier, and AJ Pierzynski to talk about his final season and the legacy he's. Adam Wainwright 141-80, 3.23 ERA, 1,547 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA 3x All-Star, 2 Gold Gloves, 2 rings Injuries have plagued Adam Wainwright more than the other pitchers on this list; he's going to be 36 in a few months and he's logged just 1,800 innings due to Tommy John surgery (2011) and an Achilles tendon rupture (2015). But if it wasn't for . Verlanders resume is impressive; hes led the league in strikeouts four times, wins twice, won a pitching triple crown, and thrown two no-hitters. 163-103, 3.40 ERA, 2,125 strikeouts, 122 adjusted ERA. Adam Wainwright strikes out Chas McCormick swinging in the top of the 1st inning, one of his two strikeouts over three innings of work. There are some people that feel Wainwright will join his legendary teammates in Cooperstown at some point in time, a trio of Hall of Famers all departing the Cardinals at the same time. 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Adam Wainwright will return for his 19th season with the. Adam Parrish Wainwright was born on August 30, 1981, in Brunswick, Georgia. He was merely a good pitcher on the Detroit Tigers, vastly overshadowed by teammate Justin Verlander. Your email address will not be published. Jim Bowden (The Athletic) was at Cardinal camp earlier this week and asked president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about Flahertys status. All WAR (and WPA) figures here refer to the Baseball Reference version, unless otherwise indicated. But he didnt become a full-time starter until his age-24 season, and hes now pitched for a quarter of the American League teams. But I want to consider Adam Wainwrights Hall of Fame case as a purely statistical candidate based on the statistics we currently have. Fantasy baseball: Which prospects have fantasy value in 2023? The Cardinals and starting pitching and injuries. Throughout his career, Wainwright has won a World Series and has been selected to the All-Star game three times. Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C. Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis. But its just not going to happen anymore the way pitchers are used now and the way free agency is and (how) careers go. For the last 35 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans. Perhaps (I would argue this is more likely) a new narrative arc would emergeWainwright, say, grits through physical pain to guide the Cardinals to the 2022 World Series and enters a level of folklore which allows voters to look optimistically upon his borderline statistical case (see: Ortiz, David). The two were teammates from 2005-07, and Rolen was out at third base when Wainwright recorded the final out of the 2006 World Series for the St. Louis Cardinals..